The 155-day threshold isn't arbitrary: statistically, once a coin sits still that long, the odds it moves in any given week drop sharply. The holder has survived at least one scary drawdown without selling — so analysts treat those coins as "strong hands." Everything younger is a short-term holder: faster money, more likely to sell on a headline.
The split matters because the two cohorts drive different markets. Bull runs are typically fueled by long-term holders
distributing — selling into strength to new buyers at a profit. Bottoms tend to form when the opposite happens: long-term holders capitulating at a loss, as they did near the 2015, 2018–19, and late-2022 lows — and as on-chain data showed again in
this week's exchange flows. Because every coin's last movement is timestamped on the
blockchain, this is all public, verifiable data — no surveys required.